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Analysis | Again, an echo of Vietnam
By STEWART M. POWELL
Hearst Newspapers
WASHINGTON — President Bush’s challenge to Iraqi Prime
Minister Nouri al-Maliki to take over the war in Iraq resembles
efforts by past U.S. presidents to force the troubled
governments of South Vietnam to step up to the task during the
Vietnam war.
Bush may be more successful at energizing the U.S.-backed
regime in Baghdad to embrace accelerated “Iraqification” of the
war than Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard M. Nixon and Gerald Ford
were at getting Saigon to adopt “Vietnamization.”
Bush repeatedly emphasized in his nationally televised
address Wednesday night that Iraqis must take the lead in the
fight for their homeland.
“America’s commitment is not open-ended,” Bush warned Maliki.
“If the Iraqi government does not follow through on its
promises, it will lose the support of the American people.”
Bush added in excerpts released by the White House: “Only the
Iraqis can end the sectarian violence and secure their people.”
A senior White House official readily conceded the next,
Iraqi-led phase of the 46-month campaign is likely to be costly
in both lives of U.S. soldiers and taxpayers’ money.
The added financial cost? At least $5.6 billion for sending
up to 21,500 additional U.S. troops to join the 132,000 already
there and for boosting provincial reconstruction efforts by $1
billion.
The Iraqi government is being called upon to reinforce its
military and police units in Baghdad and take the lead in
casualty-prone raids to quell sectarian bloodshed. U.S. troops
will adopt the less exposed role of combat advisers.
But the risk remains that the latest U.S. effort to hand over
combat responsibility to the Iraqis may yield little more than
what happened in South Vietnam in the 1970s, when the United
States first handed off responsibility for leading the fight —
and then handed off blame for the South Vietnamese defeat after
almost all U.S. forces had left.
In words that resembled Bush’s Wednesday night, Ford told the
nation on April 23, 1975, as North Vietnamese forces advanced
into Saigon: “We can and we should help others to help
themselves. But the fate of responsible men and women
everywhere, in the final decision, rests in their hands, not in
ours.”
Ford’s comments at Tulane University came shortly before U.S.
diplomats and U.S. Marine embassy guards fled Saigon, ending an
11-year U.S. effort that claimed the lives of at least 58,168
U.S. soldiers, wounded 153,303 other U.S. soldiers and cost
taxpayers the equivalent of $494 billion in current dollars.
Bush laid out an ambitious “to-do list” for Maliki in an
address that capped a two-month White House effort to revamp
failing U.S. policy in Iraq after Democrats won control of
Congress in the November congressional elections on the strength
of their criticism of the Iraq war.
Bush called on Maliki to:
• Fulfill his promise to allow
joint U.S.-Iraqi military units to crush sectarian militias,
including Shiite Muslim militias allied with Maliki’s most
powerful supporters, such as anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
• Adopt a law to equitably
apportion multibillion-dollar revenues from Iraqi oil reserves
among the three major groups in Iraq — the Shiite Muslims making
up about 60 percent of the population; the Sunni Muslims
accounting for about 30 percent and Kurds representing the
remainder.
• Ease limitations banning most
Saddam Hussein-era government officials and Iraqi military
personnel from returning to official positions in post-invasion
Iraq.
• Carry out provincial elections
to help bring alienated Sunni Muslims into the Shiite
Muslim-dominated Iraqi national government.
• Accelerate the Iraqi takeover
of security responsibilities for the remainder of Iraq and
Baghdad by the end of 2007.
“Now is the time to act,” Bush declared.
U.S. officials “will see over the next several months”
whether Maliki’s government makes good on the promised changes,
a senior White House official emphasized. “It is time for the
Iraqis to step forward.”
The White House official also tried to put some political
daylight between Bush and Maliki.
Bush boasted just last month that his administration was
helping Maliki forge an Iraq that “can sustain and govern and
defend itself” and serve as a U.S. ally in the war on terror.
But Wednesday, the senior White House official lowered Iraq’s
importance by describing the Baghdad regime as little more than
“an experiment in democracy.” That was a phrase White House
officials had not used before to describe the American effort in
Iraq. |